What started as subprime troubles in the summer of 2007 has in the mean time turned into a deep worldwide recession. Forecasts have rapidly declined since the autumn of 2008 and are still going down at this moment. In these uncertain economic times with no agreement of where we are going, it is recommended to think in terms of scenarios and be flexible.

In VZM’s 9th edition of the Commercial Aviation & Maintenance Market Outlook three economic scenarios have been selected and for each the likely developments for the aviation industry discussed. As views about the economic future are rapidly changing – unfortunately up to now mainly in the negative direction – VZM has defined the scenario boundaries as wide as possible.

Each of the scenarios holds threats for the aviation industry, like

• being hit by fast increasing fuel prices and shortages in a rapid recovery;
• a slow recovery hurting airline growth, OEM deliveries and make the MRO market dip deeper and longer;
• while in a stagnation the industry needs to learn living in a total new environment with unprecedented low long-term growth.

Still, for each of these scenarios, excellent companies will be able to find new business and improvement opportunities.

The Outlook is freely accessible for all subscribers to the VZM site in PDF format through our VZM Publications page. Subscription is free of charge and without any obligations. To become a subscriber of the VZM site and to have access to our Outlook simply click the Subscribe-link.

A hardcopy is available on request.